Why are college graduates liberal? June 30, 2004.

Still, the simplest explination is that liberal is right (correct). An abstract model might be that there is a choice to be made, C=A or C=B. A large number of people are asked and roughly half choose A. A social scientist wonders whether there is a correlation between a person's choice and a variable, K, that represents how much the person knows about the issue. It is hard to measure K directly -- possibly because people don't like being quizzed by social scientists. However, it is easier to measure E, his or her level of education. The social scientist believes E and K are strongly correlated and therefore that a correlation between C with E is evidence for a correlation of C with K.

Suppose there is a high p value (statistical jargon) strong correlation between C and E, larger E being correlated with choosing A. One possibility is that B seems plausable, but closer examination points to A. On the other hand, maybe E and K are unrelated but E just damages his or her ability to make choices. This is the Brooks proposal.

It would be interesting to test directly the correlation between K and C in specific cases. Below are some possible issues and quizzes that could be used. Of course, I've rigged the quizzes to support the thesis that correct (as opposed to Fox News) information on an issue points to the liberal position. I welcome feedback either proposing new questions or disagreeing with the answers.

The quiz may seem condescending, but saying conservatives are too stupid to make good choices is not worse than Brooks' saying liberals are too educated. He sees a group with a consensus view and asks how they could get things wrong. Having given up arguing against liberal ideas, he denounces (a group of) liberals themselves, and in a silly way: "they know too much to know better."

--------------------------- the survey --------------------------------

Question:Do you support the US invasion of Iraq? No=A, Yes=B. Quiz: How much do you know about the issue?

1. Were weapons of mass destruction (WMD) found in Iraq after the invasion?

   a. Yes, American intellegence reports proved reasonably accurate. (the Fox answer, 0 points)

   b. No, there is no evidence that Iraq ever had or wanted WMD. (0 points)

   c. Some remnants of the pre 1991 WMD programs were uncovered but there seems not to have been any effort to pursue WMD after 1991. (10 points)

2. Did Iraq have close ties with Al Qaida?

   a. No, Iraq had a strict policy not do deal with terrorists under any circumstances. (0 points)

   b. Yes, members of Al Qaida had several meetings with Iraqi officials over the past decade, but they seem not to have resulted in any cooperation. (10 points)

   c. Yes, Iraq directly funded and encouraged the Al Qaida attacks on America. (the Fox answer, 0 points)

3. Was Saddam the most brutal dictator of a Moslem country?

   a. Yes, he used WMD on his own people. (the Fox answer, 5 points partial credit)

   b. No. The government of Sudan has killed more of its citizens and continues to engage in systematic genocidal ethnic clensing. The government of Syria is reported to have distroyed an entire city to punish a rebellion. (10 points)

   c. No, Saddam was not a danger to his people or to anyone else. (0 points)

Question: Should the United States join the Kyoto treaty on global warming? Yes=A, No=B. Quiz:How much do you know about the issue?

1. Greenhouse gasses from burning fossil fules are likely to cause global warming in the next fifty years that significantly changes our climate.

   a. No. This is an unproven theory supported. The climate changes naturally and there is no way to know whether ours is changing now or what the causes might be. Computer models of climate change are not very reliable. (the Fox answer, 3 points because it is in principle impossible to prove a prediction and because computer climate models indeed are unreliable. See, however, answer c.)

   b. Yes. Look at the dought in the Southwest (2 points, )

   c. Yes. Though significant climate changes have occured over the past few centuries, the current rate of warming is unprecidented in the historical record. An overwhelming majority of climate scientists of both political parties agree that this is because of greenhouse gasses from fossil fule burning. (10 points)

2. Would predicted climate changes impact the lives of ordinary Americans?

   a. Yes. Sudden global warming killed off the dinosaurs. Human survival is now at risk (0 points, the climate changes are less severe and we are more resourceful.)

   b. Yes. Among other changes, melting the ice on the north and south poles would raise the ocean levels enough to cover large parts of our coastal cities. (10 points)

   c. What, me worry? (the Fox answer, 0 points)

3. Can our economy grow without using more energy from fossil fuels?

   a. No. (the Fox answer, 0)

   b. Yes. Energy conservation and better car milage led to reduced fossil fuel consumption in the 80's. Still, the large investments in energy efficiency and alternative energy sources needed to comply with the Kyhoto treaty would be a drain on the economy(10 points)

   c. Yes. The new economic activity generated by building better cars, wind and solar energy collectors etc. would create more jobs than any Bush tax cut. (3 points. This assumes that the costs would be borne by the government through deficit spending rather than privately, which is unlikely.) (0 points)